Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.007503 0.008460 0.009507 0.010740 0.012156 0.013736 0.015635
2024-10-13 0.006239 0.007595 0.009213 0.011295 0.013923 0.017150 0.021445
2024-10-20 0.005175 0.006612 0.008423 0.010894 0.014211 0.018557 0.024757
2024-10-27 0.004470 0.005936 0.007867 0.010627 0.014526 0.019916 0.028071
2024-11-03 0.004034 0.005539 0.007599 0.010668 0.015203 0.021782 0.032282
2024-11-10 0.003805 0.005388 0.007633 0.011108 0.016468 0.024609 0.038287
2024-11-17 0.003447 0.005009 0.007290 0.010938 0.016771 0.025989 0.042181
2024-11-24 0.003198 0.004761 0.007106 0.010976 0.017382 0.027898 0.047188
2024-12-01 0.002923 0.004444 0.006785 0.010752 0.017524 0.029027 0.050972
2024-12-08 0.002781 0.004319 0.006746 0.010977 0.018433 0.031554 0.057638
2024-12-15 0.002606 0.004126 0.006578 0.010960 0.018909 0.033357 0.063187
2024-12-22 0.002365 0.003804 0.006169 0.010484 0.018504 0.033483 0.065420
2024-12-29 0.002210 0.003619 0.005984 0.010407 0.018857 0.035150 0.071221
2025-01-05 0.002169 0.003626 0.006131 0.010948 0.020454 0.039474 0.083501
2025-01-12 0.001988 0.003374 0.005800 0.010560 0.020181 0.039969 0.087324
2025-01-19 0.001845 0.003177 0.005551 0.010302 0.020137 0.040929 0.092386
2025-01-26 0.001756 0.003071 0.005459 0.010341 0.020709 0.043286 0.101238
2025-02-02 0.001724 0.003067 0.005555 0.010767 0.022150 0.047776 0.116318
2025-02-09 0.001621 0.002924 0.005374 0.010602 0.022278 0.049260 0.123830
2025-02-16 0.001551 0.002836 0.005293 0.010639 0.022861 0.051900 0.135013
2025-02-23 0.001459 0.002698 0.005103 0.010422 0.022831 0.053028 0.142126
2025-03-02 0.001419 0.002661 0.005111 0.010640 0.023850 0.056939 0.158229
2025-03-09 0.001358 0.002578 0.005019 0.010624 0.024301 0.059444 0.170611